Are Republicans Starting to Feel Shame?
Democrats Seem to be Surging in Key Senate Races
Shame gets a bad rap. True, there are many harmful uses of shame. But shame can also help maintain social guardrails that keep us safe. Mobs breaking into government buildings is not safe. “Protesting” with guns is not safe. Not wearing a mask during an airborne pandemic is not safe.
Social Norms
Civil society relies on social norms. Norms are encouraged by rewarding honorable behavior and shaming those who violate the norms. Josh Hawley (R-MO) was shamed by the January 6 Committee for lacking integrity. First, he raised his fist in solidarity with Trump supporters that morning. Later, he ran for safety after the mob breached Capitol security.
On September 8, President Joe Biden shamed Republicans for opposing legislation and then taking credit for it. This shaming helps to protect society from untrustworthy and hypocritical behavior.
Intuitively we know social norms have taken a severe beating since Trump emerged. We can point to some statistics, like hate crime growth, vaccine uptake, and so on. But these statistics do not monitor the likelihood that voters will repulse anti-democracy efforts across the country.
Search Activity
Internet search activity is a powerful election prediction tool. First, search data dwarfs survey data. Surveys are very expensive and typically cover a few thousand people. Search data, in contrast, covers billions of searches by millions of people. Small sample sizes are a major cause of past election forecast errors. Remember those 2016 forecasts that Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide? Those errors, in part, were due to small sample sizes.
Second, search activity is far more subtle than survey questions. People can misunderstand a political survey or intentionally mask their true intentions. Search activity is far more genuine; it reflects deeply held beliefs and interests, which ultimately drives voter behavior.
I offer two proofs of the predictive power of search data. First, my 2020 presidential election forecast was more accurate than Nate Silver’s, which is based on surveys. Second, I detected the shift favoring Democrats in the US Senate in early June—far before other pundits and pollsters started to suggest it.
Latest Prediction
Based on search activity since mid-July, I forecast that Democrats will retain all 14 of their seats up for reelection in the US Senate and flip four Republican seats: Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Utah.
Analysis
The latest forecast is an increase of two seats for Democrats since my previous forecast on August 24, 2022. It seems that Trump’s mobilization of anger based on the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago was short-lived.
The prior forecast included five Republican-leaning variables that have since receded in importance and were not selected by the model for the latest forecast. These variables reflected the more extreme aspects of the MAGA Republican movement: misogyny, disregard for science, pro-gun culture, and white supremacy.
From a macro perspective, the data suggests that extreme Republican positions are bending under the tremendous force of shame. Voters increasingly sense danger from Trumpers and are embarrassed by them. A growing number of prominent Republicans are voicing their opposition to Trump. Bill Barr’s recent Fox News appearances and recent ads by The Republican Accountability Project are examples.
Two of the four states forecasted to flip to Democrats show unwavering support for Democratic values. This implies that Val Demings (D) will beat Marco Rubio (R) in Florida and John Fetterman (D) will beat Mehmet Oz (R) in Pennsylvania. These two wins could neutralize the disruptive impact of Krysten Sinema (AZ) and Joe Manchin (WV) for Democrats.
North Carolina and Utah are somewhat less consistent on a week-to-week basis, but end up leaning Democratic more than 50% of the time. The forecast is that Cheri Beasly (D) beats Ted Budd (R) in North Carolina and Evan McMullin (I) beats Mike Lee (R) in Utah. It is not clear how McMullin will caucus if elected, but he is formally endorsed by Utah’s Democratic party.
All 14 states with Democratic seats up for reelection have a Democratic outcome from week to week in the forecast model, so they are all forecasted to stay Democratic (AZ, CA, CO, CT, GA, HI, IL, MD, NV, NH, NY, OR, VT, WA).
Summary
It is increasingly likely that Donald Trump expended too much political capital with his refusal to return classified and government documents. This legal battle, combined with his others, will ultimately aid Democrats in the 2022 US Senate midterms. While it is possible Trump crawls out of the hole he dug for himself, it seems unlikely.
What will happen in the House of Representatives is a totally different question. It is extremely difficult to quantify the impact of gerrymandering on these elections. Then when you add 435 voting districts, the challenge approaches—or actually may be—unforecastable.
